Author: David Crawford

A lot of uncertainty in the market (in the world) is putting a pause on people’s discretionary spending. And if it’s happening with discretionary spending, we can certainly agree it affects the residential housing market that’s usually the single biggest purchase people make in their lifetime. So it’s easy to see where the housing market feels all but stalled out. 

Or is it? Year over year, yes. In Pinellas and Hillsborough counties we’re seeing a 4% to 15% drop in transactions (single family homes – condominiums). So, it’s slowed, but stalled out… not the case. 

As a realtor, it is my duty to inform my clients about what’s being seen in the market, and what can potentially be the strategy to navigate these times. 

When working on the listing (seller’s) side, I’m seeing the following patterns develop : 

1 – When it comes to single family homes, pay attention to the Open Houses. Feedback from prospective buyers is always gold, but I’m referring to turnout. How many people are you seeing come through the door? WIth so much inventory available, buyers cannot and will not go to every property. If your open houses have little or no turnout, you’re priced out of the market. 

(fyi – do NOT apply this mentality to condos)

2 – Do not get disgruntled by an initial low-ball offers. And certainly do not let your sellers decline to counter. Buyers are aware the market has shifted in their favor, and potentially smelling blood in the water, will go super low on the initial offer. I say let them as some situations may already be desperate and a seller will accept. But have your sellers remain calm and give a counter offer that they normally would give in a reasonable market. At that point if the buyers have sincere interest they will then pull up to reasonable ranges. This is the strategy to use ONLY after you’re confident you’re accurately priced in the market. 

3 – Condos – this is long haul territory. We are in summer aka off season and our Northern buyers have returned North. Local buyers are not as prevalent. We should see condo activity pick up starting September. Quick sales in this market will only occur if the price lever is pulled way low. So in short stay strong and know better times are coming. 

While I’m working with buyers, I have the following to say : 

When searching for homes, when the “right” one appears, treat it as such and go for it. Do not wait 1-2 weeks to present an offer, do not wait a week to respond to a counter offer. As I mentioned above, the year-over-year transactions are only down 4-7% on single family homes. 

I’ve seen buyers getting beat to the punch on a home they like, having to watch it go under contract to another buyer. Only play long cycle offer games if you have multiple homes on your list and don’t mind seeing a few go under contract. Otherwise “shoot straight and act correct”.

Despite what we “know”, there’s still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in Florida’s residential real estate market. We know it’s shifted and is a buyer’s market. We know the condo market is deflated, inventory continues to rise, and prices continue to drop. And we know the snowbirds are gone and summer heat is coming soon. 

So why still the uncertainty? 

What can we look to as an emerging trend to begin making smart moves and capitalize on something here?…If everyone’s dazed and confused, someone is not; and anyone who’s not is going to capitalize on those who are. 

So let’s ignore the copious amount of open house signs we’re seeing each weekend, and let’s ignore the tidal wave of realtor social media marketing we’re seeing too much of (yes I’m including myself in those categories!)

What we know : June 1st is the beginning of hurricane season. It’s just a calendar date, but its significance is that it’s going to cause people to put last Fall’s destruction back onto their frontal cortex. We have short attention spans and short memories these days thanks to Tiktok and reels. But when we see the news talk about Hurricane Season 2025 kicking off, people will soon be reminded that that was perhaps an awful time for them last year, and they do not want to experience that again. They’ve put off putting the condo or home up for sale (or the repairs have taken longer than expected) and now it’s time to get going because they promised they wouldn’t do another hurricane season. I’ve spoken with many residents who are heavily thinking it’s time to relocate to somewhere that they don’t have to worry about dealing with flooding. 

In short, I foresee a lot more properties on the water and in flood zones coming onto the market. And I foresee that further pushing down the price point on these properties. But I also see inventory of homes inland, or at least out of flood zones getting consumed and their price points stabilizing or increasing. 

If you have a condo or home in a flood zone and you’ve been considering selling, you’ve probably missed the mark. But luckily (just as we see at the gas stations when a hurricane is coming) people procrastinate and we probably won’t see the balloon of new listings hit until closer to August / September. 

So my advice to you is get it on the market now. Otherwise, it’s likely best to ride out this hurricane season and list right after it ends. By that point 4-5 months from now, we’ll have a much better idea where our economy is headed. And we’ll also have 2 hurricane seasons under our belt, so those places spared twice will develop a track record of being “good”. Price points will rise. Florida is a hot state in more ways than one, so all we need is a little positive nudge and our housing market will start seeing its usual annual upward trickle in pricing. 

My same advice to buyers is if you’re looking for homes not in a flood zone, buy now. If you’re concerned with “missing a better interest rate”, talk with your lender , or me, about what a 2-1 or 3-2-1 buydown is. You’re getting a better rate for a short (1-3 year) period of time at the expense of the sellers, or no one, if the appraisals continue to be robust. And the best part is you’ll be able to refinance 1-2 years from now. And if rates do go down, you may never pay the current interest rate you locked in at anyway. 

And consider this, if your game plan is sitting on the sidelines waiting for your waterfront condo and thinking ‘It’s likely going to get smashed, then I’ll pick it up for a song’, why do you want that property in the 1st place?? If you think it’s robust and built right, and that it’ll survive this hurricane season, then it probably is a solid choice and you should buy it now. Someone is going to ask that pretty person out on a date even when the economy is gloomy. Wait and watch someone else take them out. Wait and watch someone else buy your vacation spot. 

My final thought. There’s good inventory and bad inventory right now. There’s good condos listed for sale right now and there’s bad condos for sale right now. When I say good condo’s, I mean they were built within the last 2 years, they’ve survived the hurricanes just fine, they have low(er) HoA’s, they do not have assessments…

Do some homework, but if you’ve come across a good condo, you’re likely seeing the best or close-to-the-best price it’s going to be this year.